One Reason Your Favorite MLB Team Has a Shot This Season and One Reason They Don't
- Danny Vietti
- Apr 2, 2019
- 12 min read
Updated: Apr 8, 2019
Opening Day. A day that symbolizes a fresh start, a new beginning, and hope for every baseball fan. That's enough ooy, gooy mush for one article, don't you think?
In all seriousness, Opening Day truly is exhilarating and filtering for both the players and fans because anything can happen. Whatever happened last year or in previous season, doesn't matter. Who would have guessed the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, a franchise that had never had a winning season in its existence, would go on to win 97 games and secure the American League pennant?
To quote catcher Gus Sinski from the baseball classic For Love of the Game, every baseball fan in the world on Opening Day can realistically say, "we don't stink right now."
And who is to say they are wrong?
Heck, we are almost a week through this young season and the Baltimore Orioles, a team that was projected by Las Vegas oddmakers to win less than 60 games this year, are off to a 3-1 start. Is this likely to continue? Probably not, but that's not the point.
The point is that all 30 teams playing baseball right now have a legitimate shot to be really good and they also have a chance to be really bad. Only time will tell.
Here is one reason why your favorite baseball team has a chance to succeed this season and one reason why they don't.
American League
AL East
1. New York Yankees
Reason to Succeed: Lineup Depth
Reason to Fail: Health
X-Factor: Gary Sanchez
The Bronx Bombers are going to make the playoffs. They are too deep and too stacked for this group to completely fail. While the injury bug has already hit Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton, among others, the Yankees have the best lineup and most depth in the league. If Gary Sanchez can return to "The Kraken" and James Paxton can manage to avoid any lengthy IL stints, they are legitimate World Series contenders.
2. Boston Red Sox
Reason to Succeed: Been There, Hit That
Reason to Fail: World Series Hangover
X-Factor: David Price
Though they will be defending their World Series crown, the Red Sox are more than beatable. Sale and Porcello will be Sale and Porcello, but after that, who knows? David Price has been inconsistent, as evident by him giving up the second-most home runs in his career last season (25), and Nathan Eovaldi hasn't pitched more than 125 innings since 2015. They also lost key bullpen arms, most notably Craig Kimbrel.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Reason to Succeed: Starting Rotation
Reason to Fail: Lack of Power
X-Factor: Tyler Glasnow
The biggest dark horse contender this year might just be the lowest spending team in the league. If you look at their rotation, they have three starters who can all pitch deep into ballgames: Blake Snell, reigning Cy Young award winner, Charlie Morton, fresh off an All Star campaign, and Tyler Glasnow, whom I believe was the biggest steal of any trade last season. The only problem they face is that they have little to nonexistent power threat in their lineup, still, after hitting just 150 home runs last season (27th in the league).
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Reason to Succeed: Young and Dumb
Reason to Fail: Too Young and Too Dumb
X-Factor: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Everybody knows about up-and-coming prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who might be the best prospect since Mike Trout. Most don't know about outfield prospect Anthony Alford, a raw athlete who can be a 20-20 guy. It will be an uphill battle for the boys from "The 6" with the AL East featuring three of the best teams in the league.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Reason to Succeed: Anything is Possible
Reason to Fail: Who the Fook is Dat Guy?
X-Factor: Kevin Garnett
Sorry Orioles fans, but this year is likely to be the Angel Hernandez of seasons. You lost Machado last year, your starting pitching is led by Alex Cobb who sported a 4.90 ERA last year, and I can honestly say I've never heard of half of your starting lineup. Here's what I would recommend: play Kevin Garnett's "Anything is Possible" speech before every game and see what happens.
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians
Reason to Succeed: Durable Starting Pitching
Reason to Fail: Trade Speculations
X-Factor: Shane Bieber
For some odd reason, fans and reporters have been speculating about how the Indians should unload veteran starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Why? Are they going to be expensive? Sure. Are they worth it? Yes. The Indians have two, if not three, Cy Young contenders who are showing no signs of slowing down. They have the best rotation in the division, but they do have a very inexperienced outfield.
2. Minnesota Twins
Reason to Succeed: Young Athleticism
Reason to Fail: Setbacks by Young Core
X-Factor: Jonathan Schoop
Lets not forget what the Minnesota Twins did two years ago when they battled with the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card game. Last year was a disappointment. Nevertheless, between Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario, the Twins have one of the most athletic teams in baseball. Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda, and Jonathan Schoop were big-time veteran additions.
3. Chicago White Sox
Reason to Succeed: Strides by Moncada and Gioleto
Reason to Fail: Still Two Years, Two Veterans Away
X-Factor: Lucas Giolito
The White Sox are still two star free agent signings and two years away from truly competing for a division title. Eloy Jiménez might be the most ready rookie this season (and that's saying something with this year's rookie class), and I still believe Yoan Moncada can be an absolute star despite his high strikeout rates.
4. Kansas City Royals
Reason to Succeed: Moral Victories
Reason to Fail: Alex Gordon is Your 3-Hole Hitter
X-Factor: Jorge Soler
Since the Royals' back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014-15, the organization is still recovering from all of the money spent and youth lost. Much like the San Francisco Giants, the Royals compiled veterans like Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas and mixed in some young athleticism to make their World Series dreams come true. Unfortunately, for a small-market team, this method is tough to sustain.
5. Detroit Tigers
Reason to Succeed: Get Money Off the Books
Reason to Fail: Failing to Trade Overpaid Veterans
X-Factor: Al Avila
Goal numero uno for the Tigers' front-office should be trying to shed the contracts of Jordan Zimmerman, Miguel Cabrera, and Nick Castellanos. While they rank just 20th in the league in payroll, $65M of the $90M they have spent is owed to those three players. Don't worry Tiger fans, Casey Mize is not far away from making his big-league debut, and the kid has some serious stuff.
AL West
1. Houston Astros
Reason to Succeed: Deeper than Ever Before
Reason to Fail: Injuries...Again
X-Factor: Carlos Correra
The only way the Houston Astros won't be the best overall team in the American League is when the ol' injury bug sneaks up on the middle of their lineup. If Carlos Correra can stay on the field, the team has a good chance of raising that trophy in October for the second time in three years. Between Correra, Altuve, and Bregman, the 'stros have three legitimate MVP contenders. The No. 8 overall prospect, Kyle Tucker, is a piece that can be used for trade-bait come the trade deadline.
2. Oakland Athletics
Reason to Succeed: Bullpen Depth
Reason to Fail: Starting Pitching
X-Factor: Matt Chapman
The analytic kings sitting on the throne in the front-office at O.Co Coliseum have done it again. The Oakland A's have gone with the strategy of gathering starting pitchers who can hopefully get through four-to-five innings, so they can then hand the ball off to their ridiculously deep bullpen. While not quite the Rays' approach of using an "opener" as their starter, it is much like what the Dodgers tried last year with Alex Wood, Hyun Hyun-jin Ryu, and Ross Stripling; this tactic led to another National League pennant. Matt Chapman ranked 10th last year in total WAR (6.5) in just his first full season. Oh yeah, and Khris Davis has hit more dingers than anybody else since he entered the league in 2013.
3. Seattle Mariners
Reason to Succeed: Underrated Lineup
Reason to Fail: Innings Restrictions
X-Factor: Yusei Kikuchi
After losing home run leader Nelson Cruz and shipping out Robinson Cano back to New York, most don't expect the Mariners to compete with the big boys in the AL West. Not so fast. The M's still have speedy, while also aging, Dee Gordon, as well as two of the most underrated hitters in the game in the names of Mitch Haniger and Ryon Healy. The biggest obstacle for Seattle will be getting by the innings restriction they set on Japanese rookie starting pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi.
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Reason to Succeed: Role Players Have Career Years
Reason to Fail: Not Enough Pitching
X-Factor: Justin Bour
I am a huge fan of what the Angels front-office did this past offseason. Justin Bour showed some of the best power in the league two years ago before an oblique strain sidelined him much of the last two seasons. Trevor Cahill is pro's pro; a starter who can eat up innings. Closer Cody Allen is a veteran presence who has loads of postseason experience after his time in Cleveland. Lastly, Jonathan Lucroy was given loads of praise for how he handled the pitching staff in Oakland last season. Oh yeah, and they also have this guy named Mike Trout. This AL West division could get funky.
5. Texas Rangers
Reason to Succeed: Mix of Veterans and Youth
Reason to Fail: Inexperience
X-Factor: José Leclerc
Just eight years after losing back-to-back World Series, the Texas Rangers are still searching for their identity. While Joey Gallo can hit the ball to El Paso, he's not a guy you can rely on as your three-hole-hitter after striking out almost as much as anybody and reaching base at just a .294 clip last season. Nevertheless, if José Leclerc can provide a spark in the back of that bullpen, Texas has a solid mix of veteran hitters and youthful athleticism.
National League
NL East
1. Washington Nationals
Reason to Succeed: Core Nucleus
Reason to Fail: Replacing Bryce Harper
X-Factor: Victor Robles
It goes without saying, it is impossible to replace Bryce Harper in the Nationals lineup. It's not as much the home runs and production as much as it is simply having him as a threat to the opposing pitcher. Having a guy with a reputation like Bryce leads to better opportunities and better pitches to hit for Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner The NL East might be the most competitive division in the league.
2. Atlanta Braves
Reason to Succeed: Make a Move for a Starting Pitcher
Reason to Fail: Reliance Upon Young Arms
X-Factor: Josh Donaldson
Do the Braves need a starting pitcher to make the playoffs? Not necessarily. However, if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs, the ATL will need more than Julio Teheran. While he has been a staple for many years in the rotation, Teheran has eclipsed 175 innings pitched every season for the past six seasons. While a good stat to have, Teheran is in the back half of his career; his best days are behind him. Foltynewicz and Newcomb are both solid, young arms, but they are too young and inconsistent to rely upon for a gruesome postseason stretch run.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Reason to Succeed: 9 Elite Hitters
Reason to Fail: Lack of Depth
X-Factor: Maikel Franco
If you're a pitcher, the lineup you'd least want to face in the National League is the Philadelphia Phillies. The Fightin' Phils have nine elite hitters in their lineup. With the short porch in right field and protection around him, I believe Bryce Harper will return to MVP-form yet again. Nevertheless, if one of Rhys Hoskins or Harper goes down to injury, the Phils are not deep enough on their bench to replace either of those superstars.
4. New York Mets
Reason to Succeed: Starting Pitching
Reason to Fail: Random, Weird Injuries
X-Factor: Pete Alonso
People forget that the New York Mets got off to a 12-2 start just last season. Numerous random, weird injuries, of course, haunted the Mets all season long. It's the Mets. That's just what happens to the Mets. The same guys who led the Mets to a National League championship just four years ago (deGrom, Syndergaard, Conforto), are the same guys who are all listed on the healthy list at the same time, for the first time since that 2015 World Series.
5. Miami Marlins
Reason to Succeed: Accumulate Prospects
Reason to Fail: Unable to Develop Top Prospects
X-Factor: Sixto Sanchez
Derek Jeter and the Marlins front-office don't know what they're doing. Is it a rebuild or is it just a bunch of former players trying to figure out how to run a team? Jeter already admitted just a month ago that he isn't worried about being competitive this year as much as he wants it to be a "positive experience" for the fans. The goal this season: allow Sixto Sanchez (No. 27 ranked prospect) and Victor Mesa (No. 97 ranked prospect) to develop at their own pace without any rush.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
Reason to Succeed: Trade for Reliable Starter
Reason to Fail: Pitching Honeymoon is Over
X-Factor: David Stearns
You can only go so far and so long without having a starting pitcher you can rely on to give you a quality start every time he takes the bump. The Brew-Crew lit the league on fire last season, winning the NL Central and downing the Rockies in the division series, only to be thumped by the Dodgers in an NLCS Game 7. Much alike the Atlanta Braves, the Brewers have a good mix of young studs with much-needed veterans. The only problem: Jhoulys Chacín is your ace. The rainbows for these average-at-best starters (Chacín, Peralta, Woodruff, etc.) will certainly end sooner rather than later.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Reason to Succeed: Last Season's Struggles Were a Fluke
Reason to Fail: Inner-Division Competition
X-Factor: Jordan Hicks
The Cards just missed the playoffs last season due to an inconsistent Marcell Ozuna, injured Dexter Fowler and Paul DeJong, and a bullpen that ranked 19th in the league in ERA. With Jordan Hicks' 103-mph fastball holding down the bullpen, the Cardinals already have a hefty lineup after adding perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. This will only help Ozuna and company. My prediction: the St. Louis Cardinals will represent the National League in the 2019 World Series.
3. Chicago Cubs
Reason to Succeed: Health
Reason to Fail: Lack of Faith in Joe Madden
X-Factor: Kris Bryant
I've never understood all the speculation with Cubs manager Joe Madden. The man only brought the team their first World Series in over a century and has led his team to the playoffs in four straight seasons. When Kris Bryant is healthy, he posts some of the biggest WAR numbers in the league. If Bryant and Yu Darvish can remain healthy, the Cubs could be the most dangerous team in the NL.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reason to Succeed: Stay Patient for 2020
Reason to Fail: Aim to Contend in 2019
X-Factor: Josh Bell
The best has yet to come and it is coming soon for the Pirates. With Taillon, Archer, and Williams, they not only have an already solid rotation, but they are also awaiting right-hander Mitch Keller (No. 19 prospect) in Triple-A. Not far behind Keller is infielder Ke'Bryan Hayes, a gap-to-gap hitter who has a golden glove. Be patient Pittsburgh fans.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Reason to Succeed: Comeback Players of the Year
Reason to Fail: Misfit Toys
X-Factor: Sonny Gray
Speaking of top prospects, the No. 6 overall prospect, Nick Senzel, has turned a corner and is awaiting his call to "the show" any day now. With the acquisitions of Jose Iglesias, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig, there is a bit of a logjam in the Reds lineup (which is a good problem to have). I respect the Reds' front-office for taking some shots on affordable, misfit-like players (i.e. Sonny Gray) and am interested to see how they fare in such a competitive division.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Reason to Succeed: Prospects to Sell; Money
Reason to Fail: Clayton Kershaw
X-Factor: Clayton Kershaw
All the Dodgers need to finally get over the hump and grab their first ring since 1988 is for Clayton Kershaw to pitch good in October; not great, just solid. They don't need Kershaw to pull a heroic Madison Bumgarner-like performance and pitch like a Greek god in seemingly every game of the World Series. What they need is: regular season Kershaw in October. If Kershaw can give the Dodgers a quality start in every game he pitches in the postseason, the Dodgers will be raising the trophy...finally.
2. Colorado Rockies
Reason to Succeed: Pitchers Step Up in Postseason
Reason to Fail: Built for Regular Season
X-Factor: David Dahl
Colorado might be the most above-average team in the league. By that, I mean they are a solid ballclub who are not quite talented enough nor are they built to withstand a long postseason run. It means they don't have the starting pitching depth to win a seven-game series, they don't have a lockdown closer to rely upon in late-inning games, and their fire-powered lineup cools as the weather cools in October.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason to Succeed: Find Team Direction
Reason to Fail: Creating Unrealistic Goals
X-Factor: Torey Lovullo
In what might be the worst division in the league, the Diamondbacks are going to have a tough time separating themselves from the bottom-of-the-pack Giants and Padres. With Farhan Zaidi taking over the business in San Francisco and highly-touted prospects working their way up the system in San Diego, the D-Backs seem to be at a standstill after losing Paul Goldschmidt. Arizona is also still stuck with the most expensive contract in MLB history (annually) still owed to Zack Greinke. To make a tough scene even tougher, Arizona's farm system is relatively weak and there are no mini-Goldschmidt's being called up anytime soon.
4. San Francisco Giants
Reason to Succeed: Bullpen Firepower
Reason to Fail: Too Many Old, Overpaid Contracts
X-Factor: Mark Melancon
Much alike their competitors in their last World Series victory back in 2014 (Royals), the Giants were pressured into overpaying postseason heroes Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Hunter Pence, and Joe Panik. Giving a 4-year/$62 million contract to Mark Melancon, who has been a bitter disappointment in his first couple years, and bringing over past-his-prime, 33-year-old Evan Longoria did not help things. Despite having the oldest roster in the league, Pence and his contract are now in Texas, the Giants' bullpen is intriguing, and Farhan Zaidi, in the least, gives the front-office some sort of direction for the future.
5. San Diego Padres
Reason to Succeed: 2021 World Series Champions
Reason to Fail: Trial-and-Error Pessimism
X-Factor: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Mark my words now: the San Diego Padres are your 2021 World Series Champions. The way AJ Preller has rebuilt his entire farm system and team is reminiscent of when Sports Illustrated tabbed the Houston Astros as World Series champions three years before they actually won the whole freakin' thing. The core veterans they have (Machado, Hosmer, Myers) are young enough to still be contributing at a high level in a few years when their youngsters, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias, and MacKenzie Gore, start to hit their stride. These young studs will have to learn from trial-and-error, but luckily they have plenty of time to do it.
Comments